Structural Mechanisms of Urban Traffic Congestion in Dili, Timor-Leste
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32832/astonjadro.v15i4.22950Keywords:
urban congestion, motorization growth, traffic flow stability, Structural Equation Modeling, Dili.Abstract
Urban congestion in small developing capitals exhibits structural characteristics distinct from those observed in larger metropolitan regions. This study develops a perception-based Structural Equation Model (SEM) to analyze the dynamics of congestion formation in Dili, Timor-Leste. A cross-sectional survey of 1,001 active road users across five administrative sub-districts was conducted between January and March 2025. Four latent constructs were examined: population growth, vehicle growth, traffic flow conditions, and congestion. The measurement model demonstrated satisfactory reliability and validity, while the structural model confirmed that vehicle growth (β = 0.51, p < 0.001) and population growth (β = 0.32, p < 0.001) significantly influence traffic flow conditions, which in turn strongly determine congestion levels (β = 0.78, p < 0.001). The results reveal a full mediation structure, indicating that congestion emerges as an operational consequence of traffic flow instability rather than as a direct effect of demographic growth. The proposed framework offers a cost-effective analytical tool for congestion assessment in data-limited urban contexts and provides evidence to support demand-oriented transport policy strategies.
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